| |
PAST PROJECTS
Globalization
EBR collected and analyzed data measuring global trends in the areas
of health, education, communications, language and religion for
over 125 countries to support a government client. EBR also projected
trends in the distribution and growth of languages and religions
out to 2015 and conducted a study on the growing incidence of dual
citizenship.
Instability Indicators
EBR analyzed the dynamics of political stability in a target country
and developed an instability indicator system with graphic displays.
EBR identified indicators linked to turmoil, conspiracy, internal
war, and government instability and developed a graphic representation
of regime policies and assets. The company held a one-day conference
dedicated to reviewing the system with country experts.
Terrorist Decisionmaking
EBR conducted a literature review of all relevant theories related
to the terrorist decision-making process. Because these processes
are fundamentally the same as any decision-making mechanism, basic
theories on organizational behavior and crisis management were applied
along with specific research on terrorist groups. Over 800 articles
from 12 disciplines were reviewed. Major topics covered included
decision structures, decision processes, and organizational issues
(e.g., size and structure, leadership roles), policy and implementation
decisions (e.g., group goals, asset acquisition and allocation),
and degree of conflict and consensus within a terrorist group and
how this affects the quality of decisions.
Monitoring Events in the Third World
EBR developed a system to monitor and graphically display political,
economic, and social trends across a sample of Third World countries.
The EBR team developed over 162 indicators covering political reform,
economic reform, the military, societal conflicts and problems,
opposition politics, and foreign policy.
Working with software developers, the team created a database structure
to store and retrieve information about events, placing special
emphasis on efficiency, flexibility, and user ease. The user interface
allows even inexperienced users to search for and display information
from the database using a variety of search criteria and graphing
formats. The system can be used to identify patterns, compare progress
across regions, select areas for emphasis or support, differentiate
government statements from actions, certify progress, and track
consistency and coordination of reform issues as countries move
forward in certain areas of reform. At present, there are over 45,000
events in the database.
Forecasting Coups d’Etat
EBR reviewed, assessed, and enhanced a coup vulnerability methodology
that uses data on social, economic, political, and military situations
to forecast military coups in countries in Africa, Latin America,
and Asia. The team tested the existing data to identify patterns
and developed a revised methodology that provided new weights for
each variable based on past performance; altered the wording of
individual items to improve the reliability and validity of expert
responses; and used a different logic for interpreting the results.
EBR’s refinements reduced the false alarm rate of the predecessor
system significantly and also produced a set of key indicators that
signals when a previously stable government becomes vulnerable to
a coup. The revised system serves to enhance analysis of potentially
unstable governments by successfully predicting coup vulnerability
with very high reliability.
Counterterrorism Analysis Course
As part of DIA/Joint Military Intelligence Training Center’s (JMITC)
Counterterrorism Analysis Course, students participate in an exercise
designed to enable them to apply the analytic tools they have learned
in the course. EBR assisted JMITC by developing a new set of course
materials for use in JMITC’s one-day exercise. To complete this
task, EBR researched a number of current terrorist operations, including
the bombing of the World Trade Center, and developed a fictitious
terrorist scenario based on recent events associated with a foreign
terrorist group.
Successful completion of the exercise for JMITC’s students requires
that they use association matrices, link analysis, and VIA charting
when analyzing the information included in the course materials.
EBR also designed the course materials to facilitate the students’
application of other analytic techniques related to intelligence
work, such as identifying gaps in information, drafting requirements,
and assessing the reliability of sources.
|
|
