Forecasting Instability
All societies contain individuals and groups with some type of grievance, real or perceived, about the way goods, services, and other values are distributed. The issue is not whether conflicts are present, but their potency and the degree to which they are politicized.
The Short Term Political Instability Model (PIM) is a tool that forecasts the form and level of political instability resulting from the demands of a group in a particular country for the next six months. PIM focuses on a specific group’s desire for change, the reaction of the government to the desire for change and the group’s ability to challenge the government’s reaction. A group can be an individual group or an opposition coalition. The tool focuses on the process surrounding the government’s actions/reactions as well as the group’s confidence regarding a group’s demands rather than the structure of an organization or the government. Literature has shown that groups or country structure can help predict instability over long periods of time by determining societal preconditions for instability. PIM focuses on specific groups that desire instability and therefore can focus on short-term outcomes.
The goal of this model is to provide a six month forecast of which groups are likely to attempt to alter the status quo, whether violence will be used, what type of violence will be used and whether any changes will occur. The unit of analysis, therefore, is the group and it is information on specific groups that form the expert data inputs to the model.
The tool combines a systematic, deductive modeling effort with the knowledge of experts in the country or region. Developed through the use of an automated questionnaire, this data forms the input to the PIM. While there may be a difference of opinion by the experts, the model allows alternative inputs to be entered possibly resulting in divergent forecasts. Conversely, if an expert lacks information, the model allows alternative data to be entered and a variety of outcomes assessed. This has shown to be one of the more beneficial aspects of the tool.
The tool is designed as a stand-alone application that requires only a web browser and does not require a particular operating system.