Illegal Drug Interdiction
EBR became involved in drug interdiction because of the challenge of integrating reports from a variety of different agencies and organizations responsible for monitoring the flow of illegal drugs from their countries of origin into the United States. This required assembly of the different sets of data being collected and in-depth discussions with those gathering and analyzing the data to ensure rich understandings of their origins (collection systems) the filters applied to the raw data collected, the structure and dynamics of the relevant data bases and the analytic processes used to generate estimates of illegal flows. While the original charter focused on cocaine flows, other shipments of illegal narcotics (marijuana, heroin, etc.) were added over time as it became clear that many of the same smuggling organizations and mechanisms were being used to smuggle them.
EBR’s work initially helped to generate a rich description of the drug smuggling enterprise. The loose coupling between elements of the organizations involved, their rapid development of information about counter-smuggling efforts, and their capacity to shift means and modes of transportation emerged quickly as a comprehensive picture of the illegal trade was assembled.
EBR ultimately employed a variety of methods and tools to cross-check its work and generate a meaningful picture of the illegal trade. These included:
- Neural Networks
- Gap Analyses, and
- Parametric and Non-Parametric Statistics
The EBR approach resulted in three independent analyses that converged to show the route and modes of transportation used to move illegal drugs form their countries of origin to the US, including likely diversions to Europe, Africa, and Asia.
This work was so successful that the Office of National Counter-Drug Policy (ONDCP) and the White House asked EBR to extend the work to include an evaluation of the investment strategies and the relative effectiveness and efficiency of the different elements of the interdiction strategy. EBR was tasked to conduct these analyses because of its track record of dealing successfully with the full range of organizations and agencies engaged in interdiction and because it was an unbiased source of analysis and recommendations. The classified results of these analyses and the associated recommendations were passed on to the Congress as an input to budget decisions. The unclassified results were published by ONDCP in its annual report.