Modeling Adversary Reactions, Validating Experiment Limitations (MARVEL)
EBR is currently assisting the US Air Force Research Laboratory in developing their National Operational Environment Model (NOEM). Functioning as a strategic planning and assessment tool, NOEM is a large-scale stochastic model representing a complex mix of political, economic, military, and social systems within a region of interest. To assist operational intelligence analysts and military planners in matching the capabilities of this model to a specific situation, EBR is constructing a narrative-based knowledge framework that will (1) link the model with the campaign strategies of both friendly and adversary forces and (2) enable the model to be dynamically updated and modified in response to regional events. In a second area, EBR is extending traditional model verification and validation methods to address the dynamic adaptation of the model to an emergent battlespace. The resulting additions to the NOEM modeling architecture will improve its ability to address a broad spectrum of military operations in today’s world.